Today's Best: Starting Pitchers

At the end of every baseball season I sort through the league leaders in batting and pitching categories, paying special attention to superstars building Hall of Fame careers, rookies who took the league by storm, and breakout seasons from players who might be better than I realize. 

I also do this for card sorting purposes. My star player box usually has a small bit of turnover after every season as I re-evaluate which veteran players are under-performing and which young guns or late-bloomers have earned their place among the superstars of their sport. 

Though I do analyze the just-completed season's stats as a guide, I don't consider a player a "star" based off one good season (unless that player is a record-breaking rookie.) In my book (er, box) a player's performance over the last three seasons is the key to considering that player a star. 

In some cases, an established veteran can stay in my star box even if their last three seasons have been sub-par. It might be difficult to get in, but it's even harder to be kicked out. This is partially because I dislike going through the trouble of making room in my commons binders - but mostly because it's hard for me to give up on a player who was once a perennial All-Star. I'm talking about players like Joe Mauer, Ryan Braun, and the player that inspired this blog post - CC Sabathia.

 
On Saturday, as the Yankees desperately tried to prevent the Red Sox from clinching the A.L. East crown, Sabathia took the hill for Yanks against Toronto. The Yankee broadcasters - specifically David Cone and Ken Singleton - discussed Sabathia's chances of reaching the Hall of Fame and the 300-win mark. 

That got me thinking. Not about CC's HOF chances (I think he's two good seasons away, the YES homers said he's one away) but what they said about 300 wins. I can't remember the exact quote, but the gist of it was that Sabathia is the last guy that has a shot.

Here is my rebuttal to that:

Clayton Kershaw is 29 years old. He plays for the best team in baseball, and the team with the league's highest payroll. Assuming Kershaw's arm doesn't fall off (not a given considering his recent injury trouble) he could easily duplicate the 144 wins he's already banked. That would give him 288 before he turns 40. 

Justin Verlander has an outside shot at 300 wins - and I would give him slightly better odds than CC Sabathia. Verlander will start next season as a 35 year-old with 188 career wins, nearly 50 behind Sabathia's total of 237. But if the longtime Tiger stays healthy (he's made 30 or more starts in all but one season) and stays with the Astros (who are built to win for the long haul) he could add another 75-80 wins to his total before he turns 40. 

Sabathia is only 63 shy of the magic mark - but he's already 37 (not that 37 is old, mind you!) and even with a stellar comeback season in '17, he's averaged just 8 wins over the past four campaigns. CC would have to exceed that into his age 41 season (or pitch until he's 42) just to reach 270 wins. Btw, 270 would match Mike Mussina's career win total, and Moose is not in the Hall of Fame (yet?)

Zack Greinke could get there as well. He'll be 34 this month, he has 172 career W's, and he pitches for a playoff team. Greinke's a gamer, but his social anxiety issues could lead to an abrupt retirement (he had to be talked out of retiring early in his career.)  Aside from that it's no sure bet Arizona will contend each of the next six years - but if Greinke can manage a 15-win average with the D-backs (or another team) he'll have about 260 wins banked before he turns 40.

What do Sabathia, Kerhsaw, and Grienke have in common? They started accumulating wins at age 20 (Verlander was 22 when he made his MLB debut) Pitchers just don't do that anymore. 

Felix Hernandez won more games at age 20 than he did at age 30. He's got 160 wins and won't turn 32 until early next season, but he's trending downward for a below-average Seattle team. I've considered pulling his cards from my star box, but I'll give him one more year to dig out of this decline.


In conclusion, while I disagree that Sabathia is the last potential 300-game winner in baseball, I can't imagine anyone other than these aces getting there. That's because all of today's top starting pitchers are approaching or exceeding 30 years of age.

These are the 12 active starting pitchers in my "star player" box, listed youngest to oldest:

Madison Bumgarner (8/1/1989)
Chris Sale (3/30/1989)
Masahiro Tanaka (11/1/1988)
Stephen Strasburg (7/20/1988)
Clayton Kershaw (3/19/1988)
Yu Darvish (8/16/1986)
Felix Hernandez (4/8/1986)
David Price (8/26/1985)
Max Scherzer (7/27/1984)
Zack Greinke (10/21/1983)
Justin Verlander (2/20/1983) 
CC Sabathia (7/21/1980)

I've combed through the list of other active starters to consider, and most of them are in the same age bracket:

Cole Hamels - quietly putting together a stellar career
Jon Lester - my Red Sox-colored glasses cloud my judgment on Jon
Jake Arrieta - late bloomer who may already be descending from his peak
Dallas Keuchel - I need to see what he does next year before I decide
Jacob deGrom - see above
Corey Kluber - it may be time to demote Darvish and send in the Klubot

It might also be time to acquire some Kluber base cards.

This is when I realized that one reason why there are no young aces anymore is because two of them - Jose Fernandez and Yordano Ventura - tragically passed away. 

Which leads me to another question - who is baseball's next great starting pitcher?
Is it Luis Severino? Noah Syndergaard? Robbie Ray? Julio Urias? Because unless Shohei Otani is coming to pitch in the majors next year I don't see any young pitcher breaking through the baseball world, the baseball card hobby, or my star box any time soon.


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