Tuesday, February 28, 2023

100 Greatest Non-Hall of Famers: #40-21

By now, you've probably noticed that a lot of the players on this list are either 19th-century stars who slipped through the cracks or modern stars with several All-Star seasons and about 2,000 hits to their credit. And you've probably seen enough familiar names to have a guess at who's left. But we haven't quite reached the group of legends whose misdeeds are all that kept them from Cooperstown's hallowed hall. This segment is the intersection of those two groups - there may be some surprise names but you're going to see some stars with legitimate cases for enshrinement. It might be my favorite segment of all.



The Collector's Countdown of the 100 Greatest players not enshrined in the Baseball Hall of Fame continues with a look at players #40-21:


#40 - RF Bobby Bonds

The first player in major league history to accumulate 300 career home runs and 300 stolen bases, Bobby Bonds was nearly the first 40-40 man after a brilliant 1973 season in which he smacked 39 homers, stole 43 bags, and led the majors in runs scored and total bases. He was also honored with his second (of three) Gold Gloves and second (of three) All-Star selections. Bobby's 57.8 career WAR ties him with Hall of Famer Enos Slaughter for 23rd all-time among right fielders, and he ranks fifth all-time among all players in power/speed metric. Out of all the players on this list with under 2,000 hits and a lifetime average under .270, Bobby Bonds may have had had the most overall talent.

Cooperstown comparable: Dave Winfield
Highest HOF Vote Total: 1993 BBWAA - 45 votes (10.6%)


#39 - C Thurman Munson


Thurman Munson compiled the fewest career hits of anyone in my top 100 and never led the league in any offensive category, but his leadership and presence behind the plate for the 1970s Yankees was unforgettable. Munson won AL Rookie of the Year honors in 1970, was named the league's MVP in '76, and earned three Gold Gloves to go with his seven All-Star selections. He batted over .300 in five seasons and posted three consecutive 100-RBI seasons. In the playoffs, the two-time World Series champion was "Captain Clutch" long before Derek Jeter, batting .375 with three homers and 22 RBI in 30 postseason contests. If you believe Buster Posey should be a Hall of Famer, compare his career to Munson's.

Cooperstown comparable: a slower Buck Ewing
Highest HOF Vote Total: 1981 BBWAA - 62 votes (15.5%)*

*The five-year waiting period was waived for Munson after his tragic death in 1979. He stayed on the ballot for the full 15 years, but never received even 10% of the vote again.


#38 - RF Mike Tiernan


Mike Tiernan slots in between Juan Gonzalez and Babe Herman among right fielders with a 43.5 career offensive WAR. Herman is a close comp; both played about 1,500 games and collected about 1,800 hits. At first glance, Herman has the advantage in power - though he never led the league in home runs, doubles, total bases, or slugging%. That said, Tiernan was the NL's home run king two consecutive years, led the NL in slugging and total bases in 1890, and paced the senior circuit in OPS twice. "Silent Mike" was among the top power hitters of his day and stole over 400 bases and ranked top-3 in fielding percentage three times, which is why he ranks among the top corner outfielders on this list.

Cooperstown comparable: "King" Kelly
Highest HOF Vote Total: N/A



#37 - LF Sherry Magee


When I was a very young collector, I knew that Sherry Magee was featured on one of the most valuable error cards of all time. What I didn't know was that Magee was an excellent outfielder. Four times, Sherry led his league in RBI including a monster year in 1910 when he led the majors in runs scored and runs driven in, to go with his NL-leading slash line of .331/.445/.507. For his career, the Phillies great totaled 2,169 hits, 441 stolen bases, a 137 OPS+, and a career WAR of 59.4 - the highest total among non-Hall left fielders who aren't tainted by PEDs or gambling scandals. Magee was the beneficiary of a gambling fix, ending his career with the 1919 World Champion Reds.

Cooperstown comparable: Joe Kelley
Highest HOF Vote Total: 2009 VC - 3 votes (25%)



#36 - OF Reggie Smith


What was I saying about players with several All-Star seasons and about 2,000 career hits? Reggie Smith is a quintessential "Hall of Very Good" representative, with his 2,020 career base knocks, seven appearances in the midsummer classic, 314 career home runs, and 1,092 career RBI. Smith's slash line of .287/.366/.489 straddles the line between "good" and "great", though all-encompassing statistics that factor in his era indicate he should have received much more consideration for Cooperstown. Only one right fielder outside the Hall has accumulated more WAR than Smith's 64.5, and his OPS of .855 ranks ahead of such legends as Tony Gwynn, Roberto Clemente, and Reggie Jackson.

Cooperstown comparable: Kirby Puckett
Highest HOF Vote Total: 1988 BBWAA - 3 votes (0.7%)



#35 - 1B/DH Jason Giambi



Jason Giambi checks in with 2,010 career hits and five All-Star selections, though the rest of his resume stands out among players we've seen so far on this countdown. The American League MVP in 2000 crushed 440 home runs and compiled 1,441 RBI in his 20-year career, but never led the league in either category. The archetype of Oakland's "Moneyball" era, Giambi led the league in walks four times, on-base percentage three times, and OPS+ twice. Unsurprisingly, he left the small-market A's and signed with the Yankees as a free agent in 2002. His 3,753 total bases are an incredible amount for a player with zero speed, and he might have a case for inclusion in Cooperstown if he'd accomplished all of this without using PEDs.

Cooperstown comparable: Jeff Bagwell
Highest HOF Vote Total: 2020 BBWAA - 6 votes (1.5%)

 

#34 - SP Kevin Brown

Kevin Brown was baseball's first $100-million man after signing a seven-year deal with the Dodgers before the 1999 season. In the ten seasons prior, Brown had proven himself as a durable ace as he led the league in starts three times, ERA twice, and WHIP twice. He earned six All-Star selections and finished top-3 in Cy Young voting twice, including a second-place finish in 1997 when he won a World Series with the Marlins. Brown's 68.2 WAR ranks 36th all-time among pitchers and fourth among qualifying hurlers without a plaque in Cooperstown. It's unlikely he'll get one, mostly due to poor postseason performances and presumed PED use.

Cooperstown comparable: Don Drysdale
Highest HOF Vote Total: 2011 BBWAA - 12 votes (2.1%)



#33 - RF Bobby Abreu


Not many baseball fans thought of Bobby Abreu as a potential Hall of Famer even at his peak. A two-time All-Star, Abreu won one Gold Glove and one Silver Slugger award in his nine years with the Phillies. His quiet consistency continued in New York and Anaheim, resulting in a career slash line of .291/.395/.471 boosted by his impeccable plate discipline. Abreu posted eight seasons with 100 or more walks, eight seasons with 100 or more RBI, and nine seasons with 20 or more home runs. He also led right fielders in assists twice and stole 30 or more bases in six seasons. Hall of Fame voters are slowly starting to take notice.

Cooperstown comparable: Harry Hooper
Highest HOF Vote Total: 2023 BBWAA - 60 votes (15.4%)

 

#32 - SP Bret Saberhagen


Bret Saberhagen was among the best pitchers in baseball when healthy, especially in odd-numbered years. The three-time All-Star posted four 5-WAR seasons in Kansas City: 1985, when he was named World Series MVP and a Cy Young winner at age 21; 1987, when he earned his first All-Star selection in the midst of an 8 WAR, 18-win season; 1989, when "Sabes" was a Cy Young winner for the second time after leading the majors in ERA, wins, WHIP, and innings pitched, and 1991. He had another excellent season in 1994 with the Mets, but injuries took their toll throughout his thirties. While he was less durable than David Cone or Kevin Brown, I'm ranking Saberhagen higher due to his advantage in strikeout-to-walk ratio and historically low walk rate.
 
Cooperstown comparable: Dazzy Vance
Highest HOF Vote Total: 2007 BBWAA - 7 votes (1.3%)
 
 

#31 - 2B Bobby Grich


You've seen plenty of players with a career WAR total in the 60s on this countdown; now meet the first 70-WAR player. Bobby Grich ranks ninth all-time among second basemen with his 71.1 score, excelling at bat and in the field. A six-time All-Star and four-time Gold Glove winner, Grich led the league in several fielding metrics from 1973-75 while contributing four straight seasons of over 5 WAR on offense. His 1,833 career hits and .266 batting average are more in line with lower-ranked players, but he gets a big boost for defensive value and home run power. Grich led all American Leaguers in home runs during the strike-shortened 1981 season and retired as the fourth-leading home run hitter among second basemen five years later.

Cooperstown comparable: Bobby Doerr
Highest HOF Vote Total: 1992 BBWAA - 11 votes (2.6%)


 

#30 - RP Billy Wagner


Hall of Fame voters have never elected a pitcher with less than 1,000 career innings under his belt. That could change soon as Billy Wagner is knocking on the door. The seven-time All-Star and 1999 NL Reliever of the Year pitched 903 innings (fewer than all eight HOF closers) and made 853 appearances (fewer than all but Bruce Sutter). In that brief amount of work, Wagner recorded 422 saves (sixth all-time) and 1,196 strikeouts - more than Mariano Rivera in far fewer innings. His 2.31 career ERA is tied for second lowest all-time among qualifying relievers with the still-active Craig Kimbrel. This is the first player on the countdown who almost certainly will be enshrined in Cooperstown.

Cooperstown comparable: Mariano Rivera
Highest HOF Vote Total: 2023 BBWAA - 265 votes (68.1%)

 


#29 - 1B Carlos Delgado


Carlos Delgado ranks in the top-20 all-time among first basemen in doubles, home runs, RBI, OPS, and walks. Only one non-Hall of Famer at his position has a higher slugging percentage that Carlos's career .546 mark. His 1,512 RBI rank 55th all-time among all players and his 473 long balls rank 34th on the all-time list -- two below Willie Stargell, in 370 fewer plate appearances. Delgado earned more Silver Slugger awards (three) than All-Star selections (two), perhaps because his peak years were played in Toronto during the Steroid Era. It should be noted that he has never been linked to performance-enhancing drug use or any other off-the-field incident that would exclude him from Cooperstown. It baffles me how his career output was worth a mere 44.4 WAR or a handful of Hall of Fame votes.

Cooperstown comparable: Willie Stargell
Highest HOF Vote Total: 2015 BBWAA - 21 votes (3.8%)



#28 - LF Albert Belle



Now here's an all-time great slugger with character issues. Albert Belle played just ten full seasons, including the strike-shortened 1994 campaign. In that time, Belle blasted 381 home runs, 389 doubles, collected 3,300 total bases and 1,239 RBI while earning five All-Star selections and five Silver Slugger awards. He led the majors with 52 doubles, 50 home runs, a .690 slugging percentage, and 377 total bases in 1995 - and finished second in AL MVP voting. Albert's off-the-field antics did him no favors with fans or voters, and a hip injury that ended his career after just 1,539 games made it much easier to keep him out of Cooperstown. I've ranked him here based on his 144 OPS+, and because only one player in major league history has hit more home runs than Belle in fewer at-bats.

Cooperstown comparable: Ralph Kiner
Highest HOF Vote Total: 2006 BBWAA - 40 votes (7.7%)

 

 

#27 - CF Andruw Jones


Andruw Jones has a confounding Cooperstown case. His 62.7 WAR ranks 14th all-time among center fielders, boosted by 24.4 dWAR that ranks him first at his position and 22nd all-time among all players. Jones has ten Gold Gloves; only two outfielders (Clemente and Mays) have more. Only five center fielders have more home runs than Andruw, and two of them (Dawson and Beltran) have just a couple more - in over 2,000 more at-bats. Before the age of 30, he had already posted five 30-home run seasons, a 40-homer season and a 50-homer season. After age 30... yikes. Jones lumbered through a half-decade as a part-timer with four different teams and sunk his career slash line to .254/.337/.486. He didn't even reach 2,000 career hits. Regardless, his Hall of Fame vote totals are trending toward enshrinement. 

Cooperstown comparable: Andre Dawson
Highest HOF Vote Total: 2023 BBWAA - 226 (58.1%)



#26 - 1B Keith Hernandez


Keith Hernandez had fewer home runs, RBI, and doubles than the first base triumvirate of Mattingly, Olerud, and Clark, though his batting average and OBP would blend right in. The five-time All-Star vaults over them and every other first baseman revealed so far with 60.3 WAR, boosted by his legendary defense. An eleven-time Gold Glove honoree, Hernandez led the NL in fielding percentage two straight seasons from 1985-86. He shared NL MVP honors with Willie Stargell in 1979, finished second in 1984, and placed fourth in 1986 when he anchored a motley crew of Mets to the title. A lack of home run power, counting stats that fall just short, and his cocaine use in the early 1980s, contributed to keeping him out of Cooperstown, but.... he's Keith Hernandez.

Cooperstown comparable: Joe Cronin
Highest HOF Vote Total: 1998 BBWAA - 51 votes (10.8%)*

*Hernandez received 52 votes in the 2000 election, but there were 26 more ballots and his percentage decreased to 10.4% as a result.


#25 - 3B Ken Boyer

Ken Boyer has nearly the same amount of hits as Keith Hernandez, though the first baseman ranks 38th all-time at his position, whereas Boyer is 20th among players who manned the "hot corner". Boyer was a great defender in his own right, earning five Gold Gloves while ranking top-3 at his position in fielding percentage five times. He finished his first decade in the big leagues with his best season, earning NL MVP honors in 1964 after leading the majors with 119 RBI and leading the Cardinals to a World Series victory over the Yankees. Boyer earned eleven All-Star selections, the last of which came in the middle of the '64 season. He struggled mightily in the five seasons that followed - but that hasn't shut the door on Andruw Jones' Cooperstown chances.

Cooperstown comparable: Scott Rolen
Highest HOF Vote Total: 1988 BBWAA - 108 votes (25.3%)


#24 - OF/1B Harry Stovey


Harry Stovey is perhaps the most accomplished 19th-century position player not in the Hall of Fame. In just 1,489 career games, the speedy Stovey scored 1,495 runs and rapped 1,775 hits, with a good chunk of them going for extra bases. He ranks 21st all-time with 176 triples, leading his league in the category four times. Stovey finished a season with double-digit home runs six times, which doesn't sound like much to us 21st-century folk, but it was good enough to lead the league on five occasions. Harry led the league in stolen bases twice and totaled at least 509 swipes - probably a lot more, but stolen base data from the 1880s is incomplete. It's likely that his .288 lifetime average and comparatively low hit total were the main reason why generations of Hall voters passed over Stovey.

Cooperstown comparable: Bid McPhee
Highest HOF Vote Total: Appeared on multiple Veterans' Committee ballots.

 

#23 - SP Tommy Bond

Tommy Bond pitched primarily in the 1870s, barely qualifying for this countdown with ten pro seasons including two where he made five total appearances. In his seven full seasons from 1874-80, Bond led his league in strikeout-walk ratio four times, shutouts three times, strikeouts twice, and ERA twice while winning 40 or more games in three consecutive campaigns. His career strikeout total of 972 looks a lot more impressive against just 193 walks, for a 5.04 ratio. With a career ERA of 2.14 and a WHIP of 1.091 over 3,628 innings, it didn't take long for Tommy to accumulate 60.9 WAR - a total that tops all but sixty starters in the history of the game.

Cooperstown comparable: Rube Waddell
Highest HOF Vote Total: 1936 VC - 1 vote (1.3%)



Have you drawn a line in your mind yet? Have you seen the player that makes you think "this guy should be in, so everyone ahead of him should be in, too"? If you ask me, that line could be drawn between Bret Saberhagen and Bobby Grich. Maybe Andruw Jones is the line. But from a purely statistical point of view, I would draw the line here.

---------------------------------------------

 Absent any impropriety, every player ahead has a very compelling case for Hall of Fame induction. 



#22 - CF Kenny Lofton


Kenny Lofton was a prototypical lead-off hitter: he walked almost as much as he struck out, and he never struck out more than 84 times in a season. He made consistent contact, leading the AL in hits in 1994 and setting a career high with 210 two years later. And he stole a ton of bases, pacing the league five consecutive seasons from 1992 to 1996. Lofton's 622 career steals are the third-most of any center fielder in the modern era and 15th all-time among all players in all eras. The six-time All-Star was also a top-notch defender, earning four Gold Gloves while leading the AL in assists from center field four times. His 68.4 career WAR is tied with Edgar Martinez for 78th all-time among all position players, and just one point behind Tim Raines - who played four more seasons than Lofton.

Cooperstown comparable: Tim Raines
Highest HOF Vote Total: 2013 BBWAA - 18 votes (3.2%)



#21 - 2B Jeff Kent


Jeff Kent is the all-time leader among second basemen with 377 home runs and ranks top-5 at his position in several other categories including doubles (5th), RBI (3rd), and slugging percentage (2nd). The 2000 NL MVP earned four Silver Slugger awards and five All-Star selections while accumulating 2,461 hits and 4,246 total bases. Kent wasn't a great defender but he was passable. His career on-base percentage of .356 is about average for this countdown. He never led the league in any single category, didn't have much speed, and his comportment during and after his career was prickly at best. After falling off the ballot, Kent made a whiny anti-media comment that echoed another surly star, but the BBWAA has a legitimate case to pass on a player whose 55.4 career WAR ranks lower than Robin Ventura.

Cooperstown comparable: Ryne Sandberg
Highest HOF Vote Total: 2023 BBWAA - 181 votes (46.5%)




How many of these players make your Hall of Fame? Were you surprised by any players in this segment?

 
The Top 100 Countdown concludes next week with a look at players #20-1. Hope to see you then.

 
Thanks for reading!


 
~



11 comments:

  1. I'm a big proponent of Hernandez and Grich for the Hall. I usually argue for Andruw Jones, too--mostly it boggles my mind that people want Omar Vizquel in but not Jones. They were both great defensive players, but Jones was so much better at the plate. (Similarly, I can't understand how anyone voted for Harold Baines but not Hernandez.) Most of the others above Grich I'd at least seriously consider. I must admit I know virtually nothing about the really early players on this list, so I'd have some learning to do to have any kind of opinion there.

    ReplyDelete
  2. Kenny Lofton jumps out at me here - he's definitely HOF worthy, and it's crazy he didn't even get the 5% to stay on the ballot. I've also jumped on the Billy Wagner bandwagon lately. One of the most dominant closers ever.

    Just for legacy alone I still find it hard to believe Thurman Munson isn't in the HOF. That seems like an oversight to me.

    ReplyDelete
  3. Again, half of those guys are PC guys for me.

    ReplyDelete
  4. Oh man... it's getting late and I'm short on time... so I wasn't able to read your descriptions (maybe I'll go back and read it tomorrow). But several names stood out on this list. I'm just going to focus on my childhood card crush: Thurman Munson. He was one of the first baseball players I really, really, really wanted to own a baseball card of. Love the link with the Posey comparison... and I wouldn't cry if both eventually made it in.

    ReplyDelete
  5. Kenny Lofton doesn't get the recognition he deserves. Glad to see him so high up on your list. Mike Tiernan is an interesting one, for sure. I didn't know anything about him before this post. He sure was a player!

    ReplyDelete
  6. Out of this group, I'd take Kenny Lofton for sure. Like Nick said, no idea how he got so little support on the ballot.

    ReplyDelete
  7. My line would probably be between Saberhagen and Grich, although some guys below Grich would probably get my vote.

    ReplyDelete
  8. Almost all of the more modern players mentioned here come up in "he should be in he Hall" conversations all the time. The only glaring example seldom mentioned is Reggie Smith. I've always wondered why he's been so ignored. Grich, too (it seems that players who fade rapidly late in their career get penalized). Munson, I can't get over that feeling in the early '80s when people were pulling out the sympathy vote, and thinking "well, obviously he's not a Hall of Famer." But overall, I've gone over to thinking that anybody decent I'm fine with adding. (except Andruw Jones and his stupid .256 OBP in '08).

    ReplyDelete
  9. I'm still really enjoying this series and I'm looking forward to who makes your top 20!

    ReplyDelete
  10. I didn't know that a couple of these guys were linked to PED's. That's kind of disappointing to find out.

    ReplyDelete
  11. I did not realize Grich was that good. Great research!

    ReplyDelete